At the start of 2026, Smoky Mountain real estate is showing a mix of stabilization, seasonal cooling, and long-term opportunity. To help you understand what’s happening in the Smoky Mountain short-term rental market, we’ve put together this breakdown of sales and STR performance data for January 2026. Keep reading to learn more about the current STR market in Gatlinburg, Pigeon Forge, and Sevierville.
January 2026 Sales Stats
- Absorption rate: 8.1 months
- Sold-to-list ratio: 95.1%
- Average sold price: $687,449
- Average list price: $721,676
- Average sold price per sq ft: $340.53
- Average list price per sq ft: $360.25
- Sold: 54
- Pending: 258
- Active: 819
At 8.1 months, the January 2026 absorption rate signals a market that is leaning toward buyers. However, a 95.1% sold-to-list ratio shows that well-priced properties are still moving, and sellers are benefiting from strong value. The average sold price was $687,449, reflecting a seasonal dip from December’s peak of $872,597 with an unusually high number of closings. Historically, January tends to cool after year-end buying surges, and this year seems to be consistent with that pattern.
Supply & Demand Trends
Looking back at 2025, inventory climbed steadily from 1,170 active listings in February to a high of 1,641 in July. As supply grew, prices softened in late summer, dipping to $666,827 in August. Demand picked up in the fall, with 73 sales in September and 88 in October, pushing average sold prices back above $840,000. December was particularly notable, with 129 sales and the year’s highest average sold price at $872,597. In January 2026, active inventory dropped to 1,244, a significant decline from mid-2025 levels. While only 54 properties were sold in January, the 258 pending listings suggest stronger activity ahead as we approach spring.
Average Sold Price by Bed Count & City
Pricing continues to vary significantly by bedroom count and location:
Sevierville
- 1 Bed: $430,126
- 2 Bed: $530,492
- 3 Bed: $684,104
- 4 Bed: $909,801
- 5 Bed: $1,505,344
- 6+ Bed: $1,722,031
Pigeon Forge
- 1 Bed: $459,495
- 2 Bed: $534,238
- 3 Bed: $603,711
- 4 Bed: $866,482
- 5 Bed: $1,106,500
- 6+ Bed: $1,212,500
Gatlinburg
- 1 Bed: $446,125
- 2 Bed: $542,112
- 3 Bed: $725,566
- 4 Bed: $1,011,892
- 5 Bed: $1,123,76
- 6+ Bed: $1,733,250
Larger luxury cabins continue commanding premium prices, especially in Gatlinburg and Sevierville 6+ bedroom STRs remain top-tier assets, often exceeding $1.7M depending on views, amenities, and proximity to attractions.
STR Market Performance
The short-term rental market remains a driving force behind Smoky Mountain real estate values. Here are the STR quick stats for January 2026:
- Average occupancy rate: 24.3%
- Average daily rate (ADR): $507.50
- Booking lead time: 38 days
- Average monthly revenue: $3,738.30
- Average purchase price: $687,449
- Average sold price per sq foot: $340.53
- Average days on market: 131.6
- Absorption rate: 8.1 months
An occupancy of 24.3% likely reflects typical winter seasonality in January. While ADR remains strong, lower occupancy contributes to tighter monthly revenue compared to busier seasons.
Cabin Performance by Size
Smaller cabins (1 to 3 bedrooms) show occupancy between 22% and 27%, with ADRs ranging from $235 to $392. Cabins with 5+ bedrooms command significantly higher ADRs (up to $953), but they also carry higher purchase prices and operating costs. Across all cabin sizes, January 2026 performance data shows negative cash flow and ROI. However, STR investors should view these figures through seasonal lenses. Spring break, summer travel, and fall foliage months traditionally deliver stronger occupancy and revenue, improving annual cabin performance.
What This Means for Sellers & Buyers
Inventory has declined significantly from mid-2025 highs, and pending activity suggests improving momentum heading into spring. Strategic pricing remains critical for sellers to achieve top dollar.
With an 8.1 month absorption rate and average days on market exceeding 130 days, buyers have negotiation leverage not seen in recent years. This may be an ideal window to secure a well-positioned short-term rental property before peak travel season returns.
Invest in Smoky Mountain Real Estate with Help from Local Experts
The Smoky Mountain real estate market continues to evolve, balancing seasonal fluctuations with long-term, tourism-driven rental demand. Whether you’re buying your first investment property or adding to your portfolio, staying informed on current market performance is key. Do you need help navigating the Smoky Mountain STR market? Our team of experts can help you find the perfect property and fine-tune your investment strategy. Reach out to us today to learn more and get started!
